Q5 Playbook: How to Win from Black Friday to New Year
Q5 Playbook: a practical guide to winning from Black Friday to New Year
Dom O'Brien
9/22/20255 min read
Q5 is the weird and wonderful season that runs from Black Friday through the first half of January. Buyer intent is sky-high, shipping anxiety is real, gift cards boom, returns spike, and New Year motivation kicks in.
Most brands over-index on Black Friday weekend and coast afterward. That’s a miss. This guide gives you a simple, phase-based plan so you can keep momentum through December and into January without burning your list or your team.
Treat Q5 as four mini-phases. Before cutoffs, make it easy to buy and crystal-clear to receive. After cutoffs, pivot to digital gifts. In the unwrapping week, save the sale with exchanges and upgrades. In January, lean into refresh and subscription. Keep messages short, pages fast, ops ready, and measure just a few numbers that actually steer the ship.
What is Q5 and why it matters
Q5 is the period from late November to mid-January when shopping behavior, logistics, and attention patterns don’t look like the rest of the year. Delivery expectations tighten, gifters outnumber treat-yourself buyers for a few weeks, then the mix flips right after Christmas. Ad costs and inbox competition rise, then quietly ease as competitors go on holiday. The opportunity is to plan for those switches in advance so you aren’t scrambling to change creative, offers, or ops in real time.
The four phases (and the job of each)
Before shipping cutoffs (Peak → cutoffs): Reassure and convert. Pair a clear offer with delivery confidence; put order-by dates everywhere; keep mobile pages fast; let flows catch what campaigns miss.
Last-minute and gift cards: Pivot fast to instant gifting. Feature gift cards, printable gift notes, and click-and-collect; make “how to gift digitally” obvious.
Unwrapping week (Dec 26–31): Save the sale. Make exchanges effortless; nudge add-ons during the exchange flow; support gift-card spenders.
New Year (Jan 1–15): Help customers reset. Package problem-solution bundles; offer subscription starts; highlight accessories/refills; keep the tone fresh-start, not shouty.
Offer strategy by phase
Phase A — Before cutoffs: Stick with a simple ladder: a modest sitewide or category offer that’s easy to understand and doesn't conflict or diminish your Black Friday offers which just finished, with bundles and gifts‑with‑purchase protecting margin. Add a short VIP early‑access window so your best customers get first pick.
Phase B — After cutoffs: As soon as your last delivery date passes, flip the site and emails to digital‑first: gift cards, printable gift notes, and buy‑online‑pick‑up‑in‑store where relevant.
Phase C — Unwrapping week (Dec 26–31): Lead with exchanges and instant store credit so you keep revenue in the ecosystem; show upgrade kits or accessories right inside that flow.
Phase D — New Year (Jan 1–15): Switch the story from urgency to outcomes; starter kits, refills, and subscription trials that make sticking with the product easy.
Email and SMS – simple and segment-led
Keep the cadence steady, not spammy. Through December, rotate short, plain-English messages to a handful of segments: VIPs, recent engagers, high-intent browsers, new leads from your holiday capture, and international groups with different cutoffs.
As cutoffs approach, provide clear "order-by dates" by region and exactly what happens if someone orders after the deadline. When cutoffs pass, send the gift-card pivot and a "how-to-redeem" note.
In unwrapping week, send an exchange helper with a size guide or compatibility tool and a gentle prompt to consider an upgrade. In January, speak to New Year momentum with a couple of problem-solution bundles and a low-friction subscription offer. Keep SMS short and helpful, always identify your brand, and respect quiet hours.
Paid and organic – change the creative with the calendar
Ad messages should follow the phases. Before cutoffs, show delivery certainty and best-seller proof. After cutoffs, swap to digital gifting and experiences you can deliver instantly. In unwrapping week, try “treat yourself” or “set it up right” angles, and in January shift to transformation and routines. Expect CPMs to soften right after Christmas – a great window to test fresh creative with smaller budgets. Keep organic content useful the whole way through: gift guides before cutoffs, how-to-exchange micro videos in unwrapping week, and “New Year setup” content in January.
Returns and exchanges – treat them like a revenue channel
Returns are inevitable in Q5; the question is whether they stay revenue. Make exchanges painless with a self-serve portal, free size swaps, prepaid labels, and instant store credit. When someone chooses exchange or credit, put a curated add-on path right there – accessories, refill packs, or an upgrade bundle. Write empathetic macros for the top scenarios (wrong size, duplicate gift, damaged item) so support replies are fast and consistent. Measure return-to-exchange rate, not just return rate; you’ll see the impact when net revenue holds up.
Capture the gift recipient (secret growth loop)
Holiday orders often introduce you to two people: the buyer and the recipient. Offer a gentle way for recipients to register the product (for warranty, setup tips, or extended returns) and you’ve earned permission to welcome them properly. Onboard recipients with a short sequence that explains how to get the most from the product and, when helpful, points to accessories or refills. This turns one holiday purchase into two relationships without extra ad spend.
Ops and support – Q5 mode
Publish shipping cutoffs by region and mirror them on product pages, in cart, and in your email footers so there are no surprises. Simplify warehouse work by locking kits and labels ahead of time, and plan for extra coverage between Dec 26 and 30 when exchanges peak. Give support a tiny, pre-approved messaging pack and visible SLAs for peak days so expectations are clear. A good tracking page with live updates will deflect a lot of “where is my order” tickets.
On-site UX tweaks that matter most
Right before cutoffs, show a delivery-date estimator on PDP and cart, offer local pickup if you have it, and put payment options in view. The day cutoffs pass, auto-swap banners to digital-gift messaging. For unwrapping week, make the start-an-exchange link obvious in account and guest flows, and add a size helper near the CTA. On January 1, change the hero and navigation to New Year collections and pin a “get set up” guide.
Keep the scoreboard tiny
You don’t need a wall of charts. Track a few numbers by phase and talk about them daily. For messaging: revenue per recipient and click-to-order rate for email, plus replies and opt-outs for SMS. For commerce: return rate, exchange rate, instant credit adoption, and gift card redemptions. For spend: AOV and MER or ROAS by phase. Close each phase with a 15-minute stand-up: keep, kill, and try next – then move on.
Templates and tiny copy blocks
Have these ready so you can move in minutes:
Order-by clarity: “Order by [date, region] for delivery by [holiday]. After that, choose instant gift cards.”
Gift card hero: “Send a gift in seconds – delivered instantly to their inbox.”
Exchange helper: “Wrong size or color? Start an exchange in 2 minutes. Free size swaps.”
New Year bundle: “Start fresh – our [starter kit] has everything you need for week one.”
Support messaging openers: “I’m sorry this arrived the wrong size – let’s fix it quickly.”
Pitfalls and quick fixes
The biggest misses are timing and clarity. Waiting too long to pivot after cutoffs means you’re selling something you can’t deliver; fix it with an auto-swap of site and email templates on the day.
Treating returns as pure loss leaves money on the table; offer instant credit and highlight free exchanges.
Hammering the same list burns trust; narrow to VIPs and recent engagers and let flows carry the rest.
And the classic – having no plan for Dec 26 to Jan 10 – is solved by prepping Boxing Day and New Year assets ahead of time.
Q5 checklist
Phase dates and creative swaps scheduled
Order-by cutoffs published on PDP, cart, and email footers
Gift card and printable gift note live for post-cutoff
Exchange portal tested, instant credit on, macros ready
Recipient capture and onboarding emails live
January collections, bundles, and subscription offers queued
Scoreboard in place: RPR, CTO, opt-outs, exchanges, gift cards, MER/ROAS
Here is some other helpful info
These make great further reading to help you nail Q5
Australia Post – Christmas Sending Dates – check 2025 dates in October here
Wrap up
Q5 rewards teams that plan a few pivots and keep their cool. Split the season into phases, change the story when the calendar changes, and make exchanges and recipients part of your growth loop. . Do that and you won’t just win Black Friday weekend – you’ll carry that momentum right through New Year.
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